49+ min ago  (262+ words) A U.S.-Israeli airstrike hit an IRGC missile site near Isfahan, Iran, increasing tensions. The odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 7.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday and 26% a week ago. Traders view the strike as a bearish signal…...

1+ hour, 23+ min ago  (297+ words) US Forces Enter Iran Iran launched a missile that struck near the U.S. 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. The odds of U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30 are now 52% YES, down from 58% last week. The missile strike has shaken markets, with the April…...

1+ hour, 23+ min ago  (272+ words) US Forces Enter Iran The Pentagon is increasing its A-10 Warthog presence in the Middle East, suggesting potential military action near Iran. The odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 are at 52% YES, down from 58% last week. This move is…...

1+ hour, 42+ min ago  (287+ words) Tehran's call for a guaranteed ceasefire to end the conflict has increased the odds for a ceasefire by April 7 to 8.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday. The chance of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 has dropped to 10.5% YES, down from 14%. The…...

1+ hour, 55+ min ago  (246+ words) Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has vowed continued support for resistance against the US and Israel, impacting the Iranian regime fall market. Odds for regime fall by June 30 are at 10% YES, down from 14% yesterday. Traders reacted to Mojtaba Khamenei's…...

4+ hour, 47+ min ago  (247+ words) US Forces Enter Iran The U.S. has intensified strikes on Iran, claiming to weaken its military, while Iran insists on acting in self-defense. The probability of U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30 is now 56% YES, slightly down from 58% a week ago. The…...

5+ hour, 27+ min ago  (195+ words) Iran claims a US-Israel surrender, but military strikes continue. Odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 are at 7.5% YES, down from 10% yesterday. The claim seems rhetorical, as US-Israel operations under Operation Epic Fury persist. The ceasefire market for April 7 fell…...

5+ hour, 12+ min ago  (185+ words) Iran's president asserts no hostility toward ordinary Americans. The ceasefire by April 7 market drops to 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday. Despite ongoing conflict, the April 30 market holds at 38.5% YES, indicating traders don't expect a quick resolution. The president's remarks haven't changed…...

4+ hour, 34+ min ago  (201+ words) The US military's plan to seize Iran's uranium stockpile at Trump's request has stirred the pot. US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 is down to 7.5% YES, a drop from 10% just 24 hours ago. Ceasefire markets saw volume at $1,324,478 in USDC over the last…...

5+ hour, 3+ min ago  (257+ words) Iranian President Pezeshkian described Iran's military actions as "measured" and defensive amid US-Israel-Iran tensions. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 are now at 10% YES, down from 22% last week. The Iranian regime fall market reflects this stability. The…...